The people of Alberta have endured their share of tumult over the past several weeks: A wild swing of despair, hope and heartbreak as the Edmonton Oilers fell one win shy of glory, a massive water-main break that forced tight restrictions on thousands of residents, and a mad dash to make sure the Calgary Stampede stays on course to open next week. But recent economic reports are painting a brighter picture. Today, we look at a province facing sunnier days and the obstacles that threaten to cover them with shade.

• CRA announces legal action to recover COVID-19 benefit overpayments
• Pension fund BCI hunts for deals as pressure mounts on sellers
• U.S. Supreme Court rejects nationwide opioid settlement with OxyContin maker Purdue Pharma

The Canadian Space Agency has awarded MDA Space Ltd. $1-billion to build the next Canadarm, a robotic-arm system that will be used aboard a space station called Gateway.

The contract runs through March, 2030. The Brampton, Ont.-based space equipment vendor had already won two deals totalling $309-million in 2020 to do preliminary concept and design work for the project, Sean Silcoff reports.

The Canadarm3 project is part of multinational space station NASA describes as a “multipurpose outpost supporting lunar surface missions, science in lunar orbit, and human exploration further into the cosmos.”

Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen is slated to become the first non-American astronaut to fly to the moon when he participates in the Artemis 2 flight scheduled for late 2025.

First, the bad news: Alberta reported a period of unforeseeable events that derailed its forecast from February last year: Expenses were $2.2-billion more than it estimated, owing to emergency assistance costs related to fires, floods and drought, Carrie Tait reports. And weak global commodity prices weighed heavily on its jointly owned Sturgeon refinery, contributing to a surplus that fell about $1-billion shy of its expectations.

Now, the good: That’s all in the past. (We hope.) Working with more sophisticated means than my best wishes, consulting firm Deloitte this week issued a report saying the Canadian economy is beginning to “settle down” even as it faces significant challenges. Its outlook on Alberta was brighter, pointing to two key drivers of its growth:

• Statistics Canada said this week that the province can plan on steady growth over the next 24 years – to around 7,044,700 residents by 2048 from 4,849,906 at the beginning of April, 2024.
• The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, which was completed in May after more than a decade of fierce debate and several bouts of overspending, is already having an effect. The province said increased demand for heavier crude and the anticipated completion of the project drove non-renewable resource revenue to $19.3-billion, up from the $18.4-billion it projected in early 2023.

The future: First, the Calgary Stampede kicks off next week. Officials expect water restrictions to ease in time for what my colleague refers to as the “city’s famous 10-day celebration of cowboy culture.” The party will go on.

Beyond that, the province will have to navigate a future predicated largely on the health of its oil-sands industry – and of the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline, which continues to draw scrutiny.

• Analysts this week raised concerns over the company’s plan to rely heavily on last-minute shippers, Reuters reported.
• Even so, Toronto-Dominion Bank said in a recent report that it expects commodity-based provinces like Alberta to be well-positioned to fly through larger economic headwinds, projecting oil prices to hover slightly higher than the provinces predict.

As for the Oilers: One fan was just talking about the team, I’m sure, when he told The Globe’s Jana Pruden: “If there’s one thing that the team has proven is that we got some sort of storyline out there. We haven’t found it yet, but we’re searching for it.”

Onward.

Statistics Canada’s newest Mushroom Growers’ Survey just dropped, and it’s a banger.

Canadian mushroom growers sold 155,191 tons, up 1.2 per cent compared with 2022. That’s the market’s eighth consecutive annual increase.

The majority of mushrooms are grown indoors, in a climate-controlled environment, and are therefore not susceptible to adverse weather conditions, said Sophia Foglia, a spokesperson for Statscan. “The steady rise in production is in part attributed to the increase in cultivated area, but also to improved growing practices,” Foglia wrote in an e-mail. Yields have been rising since 2016 due to improved growing mediums like enriched sawdust and nutrient-rich soil, she said.

Travel: Ottawa steps in to prevent WestJet engineers’ strike ahead of holiday weekend.

Economy: Investors are parsing a key U.S. inflation report today for signs of what the Fed might do next.

Countdown: After last night’s presidential debate, more investor attention might shift toward Nov. 5.

Bears: Here are which stocks and ETFs investors (including the CPPIB!) are betting against.

Bulls: Canadian researchers are studying how high-tech collars on cattle might help predict siring capacity.

Global markets held steady as investors waited for today’s release of U.S. PCE price index numbers, the Federal Reserve’s favoured measure of inflation, for a signal of when the central bank may start cutting interest rates.

North American stock market futures pointed higher ahead of the data.

Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 advanced 0.36 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 gained 0.56 per cent, Germany’s DAX added 0.68 per cent while France’s CAC 40 slid 0.22 per cent.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.61 per cent higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 0.01 per cent.

The Canadian dollar traded at 73.03 U.S. cents.